2015 is a crucial year for the climate. Although climate conferences are held every year, this year’s meeting in Paris is especially important. Why? Because this time – unlike in Kyoto– the US and China are also on board.

More countries, less commitment

So how does the Kyoto Protocol – which was negotiated by Environment Minister Angela Merkel in 1997, which I myself steered towards ratification in 2001 and which then entered into force in 2005 – differ from whatever awaits us in Paris?

The agreement reached in Kyoto established CO2 reduction commitments for the developed nations – but without the US. In Paris, the US will be on board, along with the transition economies like China, India and Brazil, whose emissions are increasingly contributing to climate change. There is a well-founded hope that both the US and China will finally abandon their decades-long aversion to binding emission reductions – and perhaps even position themselves at the forefront of the movement. However, the agreement will be less legally binding. Despite having what I hope will be a legally binding core, will to a large extent consist of individual reduction contributions, which will be subject to international monitoring.

There is a crucial political difference as well. Kyoto was made possible because Germany and Europe took a clear lead. It was enforced with the tacit assent of China but against the wishes of the US and India.

Today the tables have turned. Paris may well prove to be a success, even though Europe and Germany are now applying the brakes – for this time, it is the US and China which are in favour of protecting the climate.

This is a historic window of opportunity, which must be exploited. The message of Paris must be a clear and legally binding commitment to the 2° C target. This must be credibly underpinned by national or, indeed, regional decarbonisation roadmaps and national mitigation targets.

A new NASA model shows that sea levels could well rise by as much as two metres on average in the next 100 to 200 years. There are currently 150 million people worldwide whose homes are less than one metre above sea level. For these people, the likely consequences of the human-induced climate crisis are already abundantly clear.

Binding and ambitious reduction targets

The US, China and the EU have already unveiled their  reduction targets . In all, 58 countries have submitted their contributions, accounting for around 70 per cent of global emissions. The pledges made to date are not sufficient to keep global warming within the 2° C limit; on the contrary, we can expect a rise of at least 2.9 °C.

A monitoring regime needs to be put in place to continuously verify the credibility of the goals. A review in 2030 as demanded by some countries is too late. It runs the risk that no real and tangible action will be taken to back up these lofty promises.

The gap between action and words can be a wide one, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently demonstrated. She barely drew breath between endorsing the ambitious G7 statements on the climate and taking a red pen to Germany’s own national targets. The proposed national climate levy for Germany’s oldest and most polluting coal-fired power plants, proposed by the Economics Minister, was scrapped due to opposition from Angela Merkel’s own party. Germany is no longer able to meet its reduction targets.

Without minimum legal commitments and effective monitoring, the pledges made in Paris face a similar fate.

The fossil phase-out

Paris must become the starting point for a fossil phase-out. More than two-thirds of today’s known fossil resources must stay where they belong – in the ground. Otherwise, the climate crisis will be unstoppable.

Sadly, the EU is in denial. Its Energy Union continues to rely mainly on fossil fuels. Its focus on connecting to new gas fields in places like Azerbaijan and its reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) – much of which comes from fracking – could do much to replace our filthiest coal-fired power plants. But it ties up billions of euros of investment in fossil infrastructures, instead of exploiting the potential of renewable energies, energy saving and efficiency.

Europe must not fall behind

The energy turnaround is a German invention which is storming ahead worldwide. But Germany and Europe, with coal champion Chancellor Angela Merkel, are now applying the brakes. . In 2014, China invested 30 billion more in renewable energies than all the European countries combined – almost as much as the total from Europe and the US.

In Germany, investment has been steadily falling since 2010. First Solar, which Chancellor Merkel forced out of Brandenburg, is now working with Apple in Cupertino to build the world’s largest solar project.

Global energy system transformation has probably already passed the point of no return. If Europe isn’t careful, it will find itself standing on the sidelines, watching other regions of the world reaping the benefits of billions of dollars of investment and innovation.

Link to the article on Europe’s World