Meeting the Challenges of Today’s Multipolar World

Dear Steven Sokol;
Ladies und Gentlemen,
Dear Guests,

Thank you to the American Council on Germany for hosting our breakfast meeting this morning. It is not the first time for me, to be here at the ACG.

And thanks to all of you for braving the cold New York winter this morning.

1                  Last man standing

This week, it is impossible to start a key note about world order without mentioning the last Republican US-President to be a multilateral leader who passed away last Friday.

At an extraordinary point in time, George Herbert Walker Bush was an advocate for free markets and free people as the shared values on which to build a new world order.

A vision in which he – for sure – wanted the US to guide – without succumbing to the temptation of omnipotence. He was an important ally in the German unification and an advocate for a multilateral system in which, as he said, “the strong respect the rights of the weak”. 

This vision is long lost. Even before Donald Trump became president. It was his own son, who made the overstretching of the superpower United States obvious– in Iraq.

So the unilateral world order of George HW Bush’s dreams didn’t succeed. Instead, we live in a multipolar disorder.

2 Destruction of the political West

This is my fourth trip to the US since Donald Trump became elected President in November 2016.

Every time I come here the tweets get a little crazier, the faces get a little longer. But it is not the least bit funny.

What we are collectively experiencing in the micro-cosmos of our twitter feed is in all reality the upheaval of the political system. A system that the US and the European countries have spent decades building together.

Wherever we look, allies and political partners are hacking at our common foundation, dismantling the structure and unscrewing the bolts that hold the system together.

The transatlantic relationship between the US and the EU has been the framework of the political West.

It was based on what I call the three I’s:

• Mutual ideals
• Mutual interests
• Mutual institutions

But all three Is are under attack. From the inside – with no regard of what is at stake.

The mutual ideals were never really taken seriously: Wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Syria, coups in Chile that were led by the US, the regime change in Libya and Iraqi gas attacks on Iran supported by the Europeans.

Neither of the partners had much respect for democracy and human rights in these situations. In the end, not the ideals were mutual – but ignoring them. That created long term problems – especially in the middle east.

At leastfor a while, not the ideals but the interests seemed to be a more solid basis for the transatlantic relationship. Access to open markets, rule of law – these interests tied together.

But nowadays, when we hear talk about mutual interest it is mostly in the context of conflicts of interest. Trump’s battle on tariffs is straining the transatlantic relationship.

Not only did he declare that “Europe is even worse than China”. Just this month he said that “The European Union was formed in order to take advantage of [the US] on trade.”

We all know this isn’t true. Until Trump all US-President tried to strengthen the European Union. Today it is obvious: a trade war cannot be the basis of a strong partnership supported by mutual interests.

And in the end not even the mutual institutions– for most of which the US was one of the main architects – are underpressure. The NATO, WTO, IMF, G7 and G20 .

The US left UNESCO, left the UN-Climate-Agreement from Paris, cut funding UN-Agencies and quit the JCPOA.

The US under Trump are blocking the World Trade Organisation and the International Monetary Fund.

For a longtime, the US as the so called “Leader of the free World” was able to unite the western nations and thus, was able to form our present multilateral system.

But gradually, the US are threatening the system’s stability. Bush sen. was looking for a new global order. Trump attacks the United Nation’s „Globalism“.

Now the US – the creator of the system – became its very own wrecking ball.

What we knew as the political West no longer exists.

3 The new system

We are starting to see a reorientation in political and economic alliances in the world.

Germany under Chancellor Merkel tried too long to appease President Trump. She ducks away, playing the waiting game until the end of his presidency. She underestimated a long time the disruptive consequences of Trump’s policy.

The transatlantic relations were based on the deep, historical connection between both continents. This is now coming to an end. Europe and the US are no longer natural allies.

No doubt, this is a bitter setback.

With the US losing it hegemonic power, the system has to rearrange itself. That is the uncomfortable truth.

But it also gives way for new alliances. And it opens room for new powers to emerge and take the centre stage of international politics.

China is one of the actors that is picking up where the US left of. But the tensions between both states need to be kept at bay. And the European Union can be one of the key players inthis.

4 Challenges for the EU

If Europe does not find an answer to the US-China challenges, the world will see a new economic and political duopoly.

The present economic war is not on tariffs. It is on economic dominance. It brings the world economy to the edge of aglobal recession as the IMF warned at the last G20 summit in Buenos Aires.

The strategy of the US for economic dominance is titled America First. With president Xi, China is pushing towards Made in China 2025. But the EU has no strategy, no answers to these challenges.

America First tries to maintain America’s role in the financial and the information industry through massive tax reductions for companies, by defending the role of the Dollar as the only global currency and by protecting its less competitive producing industry and agriculture with tariffs and subsidies.

And Europe is not brave and united enough to tax US companies for their business in Europe. And the leader of the cowards is the German finance minister -the social democrat Olaf Scholz.

Made in China 2025 targets economic leadership in crucial areas of the global economy, from renewable energies to electric driving and artificial intelligence organized from a more or less closed market where intellectual property rights are open to state surveillance. International allies for this strategy are integrated into the infrastructure of the Belt & Road Initiativethrough massive investments in their respective countries.

And again,the EU is blocked by Merkel’s Germany to develop an investment strategy for Europe and its neighbours in Central Asia and Africa. We criticize Chinese investment in the harbour of Athens – but we do not allow Greece to invest itself.

Europe needs a strategy to defend the future of half a billion of its citizens.

Economically, Europe has to overcome its deficits and lacks in strategic industries like electric driving, IT, AI, and renewables. There must be an adequate taxation for big companies as well as standards, to avoid global monopolies.

Europe is not a military force. But Europe is the largest single market in the world.

And thus, Europe has the (soft-) power to transform its industries.

Globally, Europe has to build up pragmatic and casual alliances to balance the system.

• With China, Canada, Oceania,Japan and others: through trade agreements to substitute and reconstruct a WTO that Trump wants to destroy.
• With the US: through protection of intellectual property rights and market access against China.
• With China: through infrastructure investments in poor and emerging countries – based on standards e.g. those of the AIIB.

Europe has to develop an assertive European foreignpolicy. We can no longer hide behind the US.

The first step is avoiding a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Iran-Nuclear-Dealmust be saved in cooperation with Russia and China.

This conflict shows how essential it is to become independent from the SWIFT system. Europe needs the capability to counter unilateral extraterritorial US-sanctions, – also with regard to Russia and Nord Stream 2.

5 Europe global

Europe and the US are no longer natural allies. However, that does not mean, that China und Europe will become strategic allies.

They will rather find more common interest in the future through pragmatic and casual alliances.

Therefore, we will need stronger multilateral institutions. They are the basis on which we can strengthen global governance and give order to this new disordered world. Rule of law and access to open markets rely on strong multilateral institutions.

I am convinced, this is still in the interest of the United States.

But while I have addressed some serious concerns about the future of the international system, this speech is not supposed to leave us hopeless.

It is not only the time of a multipolar disorder. It is the age of „comprehensive globalization“ as Dirk Messner, director of the UN Institut on Envrionment and Human Security defined. Globalization contains economy as financial industry, environment and cultures. Despite all nationalism we are on the way to a global society. Especially between the US and Europe.

In the face of challenges and disruption it becomes clear that the US and Europe have a historical bond that is not easily destroyed– that of civil society. Strong and assertive citizens, smart businesses and hard-working non-governmental organisations are one of the backbones of international cooperation.

Civil societies and business communities in both the US and Europe are strongly interwoven and thrive from this connection. They are powerful actors with the ability to influence international politics. A power that cannot be torn down –no matter who is president or chancellor.

If we strengthen both – multilateralinstitutions and the bond between our civil societies – they can be the basis for a renewed transatlantic relation in a world of multipolar disorder.

Thanks