With three “high-stakes elections” in EU founding member states,[2] many said this would be a “fateful political year” for Europe.[3] And indeed, we’ve been off to an interesting start.

1 Nationalism – delayed not stopped

1.1 The Netherlands

In March, all eyes were on the Netherlands. The Prime Minister Mark Rutte had stylized the General Elections as the quarter finals against populism.[4]

So, when the Dutch went to the polls, the rest of Europe held its collective breath. Will Wilders win? Will his anti-EU, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam agenda prevail?

Well, as you all know: he did not win. And the relief in European capitals was palpable.

Also, as a Green guy, I couldn’t help but notice that the Dutch Green party “GroenLinks” quadrupled its 2012 results with a social, pro-European platform. But, we should not kid ourselves.

The Dutch Elections were not are not an unadulterated win against right-wing populism. Wilder’s might not have won, but his party gained more seats once again. And keep in mind that just last year, the Dutch people rejected an EU association deal with Ukraine. A sizeable portion of the population remains Euro-skeptic.

In the future, the Netherlands pressed by Wilders might still act as a spoiler in Europe.

1.2 France

After the Dutch elections, focus shifted to France. Some called it the Presidential election to “determine the future of Europe”.[5] Nothing less.

Traditional parties had lost the first round. We have seen this in Austria where Green’s Alexander van der Bellen saved the democracy when Socialists an Conservatives failed.

In France we witnessed not a classic left-right polarization but a showdown between system and anti-system, between globalization and nationalism.

During the campaign, the right-wing candidate Marine LePen had demonized her opponent Emmanuel Macron as the “candidate of an uncontrolled globalization, social brutality and economic devastation”. She accused him of a “dog eat dog” mentality and claimed he who would allow France to be “carved up” by business interests.[6]

Where she was anti-Europe and anti-immigration, he was openly pro Europe. His claim was: Europe “protects” us. It’s the “the place of our sovereignty”. He also promised a 50 billion € investment plan. But some of his proposals put companies before people.

He’ll let the companies hash out pay and work hours. The consequence will be an assault on the 35-hour-work-week.
He would weaken the wealth-tax by shifting the tax on personal assets over 3 million euros to real estate rather than productive investment.

If Macron’s centrism is not able to increase growth and decrease unemployment he will fail to reunite a divided France.

Macron will only succeed if Europe changes.

2 A New Nationalism

Conventional wisdom says: Europe is at a cross roads. At this very moment, disintegration appears more likely than further enlargement. We face what some call a new nationalism.

Right-wing populists want to reclaim state sovereignty. They seek salvation in isolation.

It’s hard to pinpoint the exact moment when the tide turned. Was it at the last round of enlargements? Or at the attempt to give Europe a constitution? I’d say: neither.

The status quo is not the result of a singular turning point. It’s been a slow process. But it has been massively fueled by the financial crises of 2008 – and the political reactions to it by conservative parties in Europe.

But one thing is for sure:

Donald Trump did not invent Trumpism. Nationalism is not a privilege of populists.

Look to the South-East: the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been dismantling the Hungarian democracy for the past seven years. He has been eroding the European Union from within. And he’s been doing it in plain sight. Orbán himself says he’s building an “illiberal democracy” and yet he is still member of Angela Merkels party family, the European Peoples Party
Poland seems eager to beat Orbán to the illiberal democracy. It curtails the courts, and the press. The Polish people protest. So the PiS-government erodes their freedom of assembly.
Before Nigel Farage won, David Cameron has flirted with Brexit.
Before Brexit, Merkel and Schäuble tried to bully Greece to leave the European Union. A large German tabloid badgered “lazy Greeks”. The attempted Grexit was one path to the

So the nationalism itself is not particularly new. What’s new is how well it fares.

In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s advancement to the second round of the French elections was a political earthquake.

As a result, liberals and conservatives formed a united front against racism and isolationism – for an open, liberal and democratic France they voted Chirac.

Overwhelmingly so. In 2002, four fifths turned out for Chirac. Only one fifth voted Le Pen.

This time around, the front has crumbled.

One third of the French voted for the racists. As relieved as everyone is that Macron won. That number should alarm us. If we don’t want it to be fifty-fifty or worse the next time:

Something has got to change.

If Europe doesn’t change, the growth of nationalism and populism will only be delayed – but not stopped.

And it brings us back to the roots of the European Union.

2.1 Grassroot Europeans

The more taboos are broken, the more lies are told, the more platforms populists get… trumpism becomes the new normal.

But, and here’s some good news: there’s also defiance.

Right-wing populists claim to take power in the name of the people. But the people resist. They say: not in my name.

They take to the streets and they march for women’s rights, they march for science on Earth Day and… they march for Europe.

Whether it was Brexit or Trump that rekindled a European spirit. In cities all over Europe, people meet on Sundays for Pulse of Europe rallies. They want the pulse of Europe to be felt everywhere. They say:

“Everyone is responsible for the failure or the success of our future, no one can make excuses. To hope, everything will go well, is not enough...”

A recent yougov poll shows that the majority of young people like Europe. But it also shows that they begin to doubt the system. They lose trust in democratic institutions. Europe has reached a fork in the road.

For our future we have to reinstall the three basic promises of a common Europe:

Peace, Democracy, Prosperity

The EU has guaranteed peace for over half a century. It has overcome fascism and dictatorships in Greece, Spain and Portugal as well the authoritarian systems in Eastern Europe.

But the promise of Prosperity for all has suffered under neoliberal majorities in the Commission, the Council and the Parliament. The financial crisis of 2008 is still not over in the Eurozone.

The fear of being left behind is a driver for nationalism and anti-EU sentiment mainly in the center and the north auf Europe.

The chance of reinstating the EUs core promises depends in part on the outcome of the elections in Germany.

3 Elections in Germany

The Bundestag elections are coming up in September.

Their importance might be less obvious at first. After all, no major candidate advocates Germany’s exit from the EU. And no right-wing party can come close to winning. But that makes these elections no less crucial.

In fact, Germany may be holding “the key for the future of Europe”.[7] You might wonder why, since the most likely outcome is a win for Angela Merkel’s CDU and a continued grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. When Merkel visited Trump in Washington, she was hailed as the new leader of the free world by the international press.

It is not only the press that praises Merkel’s Government.

Last week on vacation in Sóller, Mallorca, the dishwasher had to be fixed. This was done by Enrique, born in Pforzheim as son of Spanish migrants. He spent most of his working life for Bosch. No he runs his own service company on Mallorca.

He asked me last week, what will happen in the German elections. I said: “I fear, the Grand Coalition will go on”.

His response was: “That’s wonderful. The Germans are the only ones in Europe, who are not crazy. There should be no change.”

I wouldn’t call our government crazy, but I am convinced:

Enrique is wrong.

It might come as a surprise when I tell you: the prospect of another Merkel win should worry you. And I’ll explain why. But first, let’s take a look at how we got here.

For Germany, there are two scenarios: more Merkel or no more Merkel.

3.1 More Merkel

If nothing changes until September, nothing will change after. We will get yet another Grand Coalition, yet another chancellorship for Merkel.

The likelihood of that scenario just went up with the elections in Schleswig-Holstein. There are three possible outcomes for a new government in Kiel:

A Grand coalition between Black and Red (conservatives and social democrats) – I think the most unlikely outcome. Beside all sympathy between Conservatives and the Yellows, the liberals want to rule. That’s their first priority.
So the Traffic-Light-Coalition – actually favored by the Green Party in Schleswig-Holstein – with Red, Green and Yellow is a possible outcome.
As well as a Jamaica-Coalition with Black, Green and Yellow – favorite of the Conservatives, but a real burden for the federal election campaign of the Green Party.

But beyond this regional effect – the signal from Kiel is: if nothing happens in the next four month, the next Chancellor will be the old Chancellor.

Merkel the 4^th is bad news for Germany and for Europe.

It’s bad news for Germany because it would mean: Austrian conditions. No real debates between the left and the conservatives about their visions for the future. That’s is a driver for the extreme right – the AfD.

A centrist coalition government driven by a right-wing opposition party. If democrats no longer get to hash out their differences, the right-wing gets to present itself as the only alternative.

And it’s bad news for Europe because Merkel and Schäuble get to continue their nationalist economic policies.

Germany currently has the world’s largest current-account surplus of about 270 billion €.

Long before Trump, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the US treasury department and the OECD have criticized Germany for causing “imbalances in the European and global economies”.[8]

Germany does not invest enough. Some economists estimate this investment gap to be at a 100 billion € annually.[9]

Worst of all, Germany doesn’t invest enough in Europe. Instead Merkel and Schäuble have forced austerity policy down their European partners’ throats. They have redefined the financial crisis, turned bank debt into state debt. At whose expense? The people’s.

Youth unemployment in the Eurozone is at 20%. In Greece, almost every second person under 25 is out of a job. That’s a grim outlook for Europe.

If Europe cannot offer these people a future, Europe will break up.

It will break into net-exporting and importing countries. North and South.

Such a partition of the Union will be the death knell to the European project.

So, it’s not without merit when the Financial Times says:

“Another Merkel win in September could play straight into Mr. Trump’s hands”.[10]

3.2 Change

But that’s not the only way things can go. A crossroads allows us to change direction. Yes, Germany currently has a giant surplus. Why not put it to good use? The next German government must stop is harmful austerity policy. Instead, we should invest 2% of our gross national product in the future of Europe.

We need a Green New Deal for the continent.

That would show our commitment. It would show the peoples of Europe that we want this union to work for them. These investments will help renew the European Union’s core promise of prosperity for all. Without it, it’s hard to keep the other two: peace and democracy.

Such an investment initiative will set an example for other European member states. And it will fuel other pro-European leaders.

Together, we can ensure European cohesion with social cohesion.

4 Green Priorities

The upcoming elections can be a game-changer for Europe. And:

The German Greens want to be a force for change.

So here are four priorities for our campaign: peace policy, energy transition, social equality and Europe.

4.1 Stop exporting instability

First, Europe‘s soft power is its strength. Today’s world needs a civilian power like Europe. But to reclaim credibility, Europe needs a policy shift when it comes to weapons exports.

It’s time to stop exporting instability.

Saudi Arabia and its allies are bombing the Yemen back to the Stone Age.

Still, the United Arab Emirates get 200.000 igniters for grenades from Germany.
Saudi Arabia gets 48 patrol crafts even though they cripple the Yemen with their naval blockade.
And while Erdogan transforms Turkey into an autocracy, the German company Rheinmetall plans on building tanks there.

Under the auspices of the Grand Coalition, German weapons exports to the Gulf have sky-rocketed. The CDU, CSU and SPD endanger European security with these exports. As Greens we say: let’s stop arms exports into conflict zones.

We need an arms exports control law.

4.2 Complete the energy transition

Despite what you may have read on twitter: climate change is not a Chinese hoax. It’s a reality that every second a person is forced to leave their home due to natural disasters. Global warming hits those the hardest that have the least means to protect themselves.

If Europe seeks ways to get a handle on the migration crisis, it has to stop the climate crisis.

But in Germany, the Grand Coalition is stalling. Our 2020 climate goals are already out of reach. If the German government does not change course, Germany will also miss its 2030 targets.

So the German elections are also about whether we complete our energy transition or keep stalling in favor of big business.

Over the past three years, the renewables sector has lost over 40.000 jobs. The government nipped the rise of solar in the bud with compulsory competitive tendering, a ban for PV on open spaces and the so-called sun tax.

It’s ironic that China cuts 100 coal fired power plants, while Chancellor Merkel pays 1.6 billion € to hold on to the 20 oldest coal power plants. Us Greens argue:

We need to phase out coal. And we need to do it fast and without redundancy.

4.3 Be fair

We have to end the obscene global inequality. Eight billionaires own as much as the poorer half of the world. Even the neoliberal World Economic Forum has caught on to the fact that social inequality is one of the biggest threats to the world economy.

One step towards more equality is shutting down global tax havens.

The tax haven for Messi, Ronaldo and Özil in Panama,
The tax haven for Apple here in Ireland, for IKEA in the Netherlands but also for VW in Belgium and for BASF in Malta,
And the tax havens in Germany for the assets and inheritance of our very own oligarchs – the so-called „familiy businesses“.

We need internationally-binding rules against tax evasion.

That is a real task for the G20- What we face instead is a race to the bottom.

It’s a turned into a competition: who taxes the superrich the least? Who offers the most tax exemptions for big business?

If Trump’s tax plans serve as a world-wide model, inequality will increase. And where does that lead us? Into the next financial crisis.

More bank debt will be turned into state debt. And who pays? The people. With cuts to social services and pensions. The Greens say: enough already. Germany needs to close its tax haven for assets.

And people need guarantees. Especially young people. If a fifth of your income goes to pension contributions, you must not end up with the minimum pension yourself.

That’s why we need a guaranteed pension.

People who have contributed to pension funds for 30 years should get a guaranteed pension without means-testing. And above the minimum subsistence level.

4.4 Cooperate with European partners

And finally, we advocate European cooperation. I have made my case for massive investments in Europe. For the Green New Deal for Europe. Because I believe our future is European.

Left to fend for themselves in the international arena, each EU member state is nothing but a pawn in the great power play.

If we act jointly, Europe is a great power. Together, we can lead in international climate protection. We can bring our diplomatic weight to the table in international negotiations.

This requires further streamlining of our common foreign and security policy.

No more hot messes as in Libya where European member states were pursuing different and, what is worse, contradictory policies.

Now’s the time to fill Europe’s global strategy with life.

5 Outlook

To conclude, when speaking about the future of Europe, be careful what you prognosticate. There is no “end of history”.

The future of Europe is open.

But we have to reinstate the European core promises:

Peace, Democracy, Prosperity

There are many roads ahead. The national road is a dead end. The European road is bumpy and curvy. But you don’t have to turn back to a bloody history of wars which this continent has experienced for centuries.

Once we know which route the German population picks in September, we will again face many more new roads.

This openness holds a promise. It’s a chance for Europe. Or in Jean Monnet’s words:

“Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.”

Thank you!

[1] http://time.com/4606051/european-union-2017/

[2] http://www.france24.com/en/20161230-eu-elections-2017-le-pen-fillon-wilders-immigration-france-germany-netherlands

[3] http://www.politico.eu/article/2017-politics-eu-parliament-elections-jean-claude-juncker-martin-schulz-tajani-verhofstadt-pittella-commission-brexit/

[4] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39297355

[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/frances-presidential-election-may-determine-the-future-of-the-european-union/2017/03/30/df1d4c7e-13c8-11e7-bb16-269934184168_story.html

[6] http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/marine-le-pen-gegen-emmanuel-macron-eine-tv-schlammschlacht-a-1146008.html

[7] https://www.ft.com/content/08844954-0fe2-11e7-b030-768954394623

[8] http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21716641-not-reasons-donald-trump-thinks-it-germanys-current-account-surplus-problem

[9] http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21716641-not-reasons-donald-trump-thinks-it-germanys-current-account-surplus-problem

[10] https://www.ft.com/content/08844954-0fe2-11e7-b030-768954394623